Latest: 2026-W36 · 146h 57m

Backend Dev
ML Pipeline Architecture

Demo starting soon...

Featuring:

Multiple Domains, Multiple Signals
Automated Weekly Forecasting
Unified Feature Engineering
6 Parallel GPU Workers
Cross-Domain Covariates
Continuous & Binary Targets
Dual Cloud Storage

Accessibility Technology

Systems Engineering

Data Mining

Forecasting

Enabled Autonomy
Accessibility Technology for Watching Videos

Featuring:

Automated Browsing Experience
Simple Touch for Selection
Responsive Visual & Audio Feedback
Auto Screen Off if Unused
Disabled System Menu and Display
Cloud Synced Videos (No Download Delays)

ENABLED AUTONOMY

Enabled Autonomy

An accessibility-focused video player. This app enables autonomy for individuals with cognitive impairment to browse and enjoy videos independently using a tablet.

Featured Signal: Weekly Usage Hours

	Forecast Weeks N=54	Running Avg	% Diff	3-Week Avg	% Diff	2026-08-30 Last Week	2026-09-06 Current Week
Weekly Usage Hours	SD: 13.0	24.3	.36	33.0	.13	37.4
Baseline Forecasts		22.9	1.02	46.2	-.01	45.8	40.5
Enhanced Forecasts		23.1	1.08	48.0	-.07	44.7	38.1

ENABLED AUTONOMY

Go To Dashboard

WEATHER

Weather

Many behaviors fluctuate in response to weather changes and seasonal trends. As a bonus, expert weather forecasts are readily available for usage or benchmarking forecasting methods.

Featured Signal: Local Max Temp (F)

	Forecast Weeks N=54	Running Avg	% Diff	3-Week Avg	% Diff	2026-08-30 Last Week	2026-09-06 Current Week
Local Max Temp (F)	SD: 18.8	68.9	.24	85.3	.15	98.1
Baseline Forecasts		68.8	.28	87.9	-.06	82.7	96.4
Enhanced Forecasts

WEATHER

Go To Dashboard

MACRO

Macro

Economic indicators: VIX, rates, inflation, and more

Featured Signal: Federal Funds Rate

	Forecast Weeks N=53	Running Avg	% Diff	3-Week Avg	% Diff	2026-08-30 Last Week	2026-09-06 Current Week
Federal Funds Rate	SD: 0.19	3.75	-.03	3.63	-.00	3.63
Baseline Forecasts		3.76	-.03	3.63	.00	3.63	3.63
Enhanced Forecasts

MACRO

Go To Dashboard

STOCKS

Stocks

Leveraging a weekly forecasting framework, this project provides predictions for upcoming stock values and buy/sell recommendations.

Featured Signal: Dow Jones ETF (DIA)

	Forecast Weeks N=54	Running Avg	% Diff	3-Week Avg	% Diff	2026-08-30 Last Week	2026-09-06 Current Week
Dow Jones ETF (DIA)	SD: 26.6	484.0	.10	534.5	-.00	534.1
Baseline Forecasts		483.1	.11	536.4	-.00	534.9	534.1
Enhanced Forecasts		483.3	.11	535.4	.00	535.7	535.6

STOCKS

Go To Dashboard

WEB DEV

Project Management Web App

You are here. This web app is designed to showcase the evolution of recommendation-focused data projects, supporting insights with refreshed data, ongoing forecasts, and documented progress. [Code Repo]

Featured Signal:

	Forecast Weeks N=	Running Avg	% Diff	3-Week Avg	% Diff	Last Week	Current Week
Signal	SD:
Baseline Forecasts
Enhanced Forecasts

WEB DEV

Go To Dashboard

BACKEND DEV

Data Warehouse and Machine Learning Backend

This backend system provides ongoing data integration and machine learning model management, supporting this web app with curated data for visualizations and data-driven recommendations.

Featured Signal:

	Forecast Weeks N=	Running Avg	% Diff	3-Week Avg	% Diff	Last Week	Current Week
Signal	SD:
Baseline Forecasts
Enhanced Forecasts

BACKEND DEV

Go To Dashboard

WEB SEARCH

Web Search

Search term trends (e.g., from trends.google.com) can gauge levels of interest from the general population. These signals are useful across many domains, such as understanding demand for various products or activities.

Featured Signal: Search: 'coupons'

	Forecast Weeks N=54	Running Avg	% Diff	3-Week Avg	% Diff	2026-08-30 Last Week	2026-09-06 Current Week
Search: 'coupons'	SD: 6.84	67.2	.05	70.7	-.08	65.0
Baseline Forecasts		68.0	-.05	64.8	.01	65.3	66.0
Enhanced Forecasts

WEB SEARCH

Go To Dashboard

AI_INFRA

AI INFRA

Weekly availability of foundational AI providers (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google Cloud AI). Outage data from each provider's status page; tracked as a candidate covariate for tech-equity forecasting models.

Featured Signal: OpenAI Availability (%)

	Forecast Weeks N=4	3-Week Avg	% Diff	2026-04-20 Last Week	2026-04-27 Current Week
OpenAI Availability (%)	SD: 4.78	92.8	-.03	90.4
Baseline Forecasts		98.6	-.12	86.8	85.4
Enhanced Forecasts

AI_INFRA

Go To Dashboard

BACKEND DEVCompleted

Strategy Record Review

The comb-through built on what persists, not on a leaderboard

Build/Data2026-09-07

STOCKSCompleted

What Persists Per Stock

Alpha, hit rate and skill do not; volatility and drawdown do

Testing/Analytics2026-09-07

WEATHERCompleted

The Persistence Control

Skill correlation across halves +0.76; three of four signals positive twice

Testing/Analytics2026-09-07

WEB DEVCompleted

/strategy-record and Dashboard Header Rework

Forward record, vol tiers, selection monitor; nav entry; rotated signal rail

Build/Data2026-09-07

WEB SEARCHCompleted

The Persistent Core

10 terms positive in both halves of the record; four above 5% twice

Testing/Analytics2026-09-07

WEB DEVCompleted

Measure the Dashboard, Don't Guess

273 mounted Plotly charts were the cost, not the bytes

Build/Data2026-08-31

BACKEND DEVCompleted

The Refit Boundary

One training cohort, one decision rule, fresh data verified first

Build/Data2026-08-30

BACKEND DEVCompleted

Evidence Admission Policy

Pool breadth costs skill; admit on non-inferiority, escalate on use

Concept2026-08-29

STOCKSCompleted

Gold and Precious-Metals Complex

26 screened, 8 admitted, duplicates rejected

Build/Data2026-08-29

STOCKSIn-Progress

volgate_v1: Gate on Vol, Not Direction

Forecasts capture ~0% of directional edge; vol timing beats random de-risking by 3 sd

Build/Data2026-08-26

STOCKSCompleted

Probabilities Are Informationless

A constant base rate beats them; the moving threshold was retired

Testing/Analytics2026-08-25

MACROCompleted

Macro Is an Evidence Domain

Own skill weak; as evidence inside stock models it earns its keep

Concept2026-08-24

MACROCompleted

MACRO2: Variance Risk Premium and SKEW

Strategy-aligned additions, derived free from data already on disk

Build/Data2026-08-24

BACKEND DEVCompleted

SQL Inspection Layer

A DuckDB warehouse over every artifact, with standing invariant tests

Build/Data2026-08-23

WEB SEARCHCompleted

Search Demand Is the Product

26 of 82 terms beat the random walk; the top-10 most forecastable signals are all here

Concept2026-08-23

BACKEND DEVCompleted

Bit-Deterministic, Shrunk, Append-Only

The run-noise root cause, and a universal accuracy gain

Build/Data2026-08-22

WEATHERCompleted

Shrinkage Confirmed on the Control

+2.2 points held-out; the domain that wanted the least shrinkage

Build/Data2026-08-22

BACKEND DEVCompleted

Pipeline Validated on Known Ground Truth

SYNTH1: learns real structure, shows no leak on a random walk

Testing/Analytics2026-08-21

WEB SEARCHCompleted

22-Year Long-History Base

82 terms stitched 2004 to present, one frozen vintage: +10.8 points of skill

Build/Data2026-08-21

BACKEND DEVCompleted

Two-Tier Strategy Measurement

Iterate fast in the lab, prove slowly in an append-only record

Concept2026-08-19

ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

Usage Hours as a Forecast Target

Beats persistence; excluded as evidence for everyone else

Testing/Analytics2026-08-19

STOCKSIn-Progress

riskparity_v1 Paper-Trades Forward

Inverse-vol sizing with no signals, frozen and settling weekly

Build/Data2026-08-19

WEB DEVCompleted

/methods and /features

The experiment programme and feature lab, powered by the warehouse

Build/Data2026-08-19

WEB SEARCHCompleted

Enhanced Trends and the Preis Rule, Closed

Covariate evidence adds no skill; 'debt' has no edge on today's data

Testing/Analytics2026-08-19

BACKEND DEVCompleted

Client-Legibility Release

Registry-driven names, 165 signals, three-layer publish

Build/Data2026-08-18

STOCKSCompleted

Tier-2 Roster and Honest Uncertainty

16 to 60 stocks, ±1σ trailing-vol bands on every chart

Build/Data2026-08-18

STOCKSCompleted

Wave-2 Triad Closed in a Day

Direction, volatility, cross-section, horizon: six pre-registered A/Bs

Testing/Analytics2026-08-18

WEB DEVCompleted

Dashboard Index/Detail Split

The page had died at 60 stocks; heap 1.5 GB to 99 MB

Build/Data2026-08-18

WEB SEARCHCompleted

Tier-2 Terms

30 to 82 search-demand signals, each matched to a stock where one exists

Build/Data2026-08-18

BACKEND DEVCompleted

Delta Targets, and the Leak They Exposed

94.9% direction on SPY was the alarm, not the discovery

Testing/Analytics2026-08-14

WEB DEVCompleted

Forecast Skill Panel

The capability claim, with its yardstick

Design2026-08-14

WEATHERCompleted

Weather as the Control Domain

Falsifying the machinery on purpose: 3 of 4 signals beat every naive rule

Testing/Analytics2026-08-12

STOCKSCompleted

Direction-Skill Audit

5,088 graded calls, no slice with skill, confidence anti-informative

Testing/Analytics2026-08-11

BACKEND DEVCompleted

Blinded Validation Caught a 10x Overstatement

Unblinded said +10.5% alpha; blinded said +1.79%

Testing/Analytics2026-08-09

BACKEND DEVCompleted

Sunday Fetch Resilience

VPN rotations were tearing the host network mid-fetch

Build/Data2026-08-07

WEB DEVCompleted

Onboarding Hub

A dated front door: docs map, glossary hovers, live state

Design2026-08-07

WEB SEARCHCompleted

Google Rewrites Its Own History

Renormalization measured in the stored fetches; the read-path fix rejected by its own gate

Testing/Analytics2026-08-07

WEB DEVCompleted

/review: Replay Any Sunday Run

Fast-forward or step-by-step, with the verification checklist as code

Build/Data2026-08-06

ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

TV Series on Their Own Rail

Engagement promotes the next episode rather than protecting the current one

Design2026-07-26

BACKEND DEVCompleted

Dev / Prod Split

Inert dev container, prod gated behind an explicit flag

Build/Data2026-07-19

ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

Engagement-Based Weekly Video Shuffler

Rollout week 0 (rollout: 2026-05-24)

Build/Data2026-07-12

ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

Lifecycle Measurement Layer

Stints, strikes and evergreens: grading every pick by what it earned

Testing/Analytics2026-07-08

BACKEND DEVCompleted

Engineering Handbook

Numbered chapters, onboarding tour, communication doctrine

Concept2026-07-04

BACKEND DEVCompleted

Paper-Trading KPI Layer

Risk metrics, portfolio aggregator, 61-week binary backfill

Build/Data2026-06-18

STOCKSCompleted

The Honest KPI

53-week walk-forward: not beating buy-and-hold

Testing/Analytics2026-06-07

ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

Kiosk Weekly Refresh

The locked tablet picks up Sunday's shuffle without a redeploy

Build/Data2026-05-24

MACROCompleted

Macro Domain Onboarded

18 indicators: rates, spreads, FX, commodities, valuation, volatility

Build/Data2026-04-26

BACKEND DEVCompleted

A/B Validation Harness

Seeded determinism, cost sweep, snapshot lineage

Testing/Analytics2026-04-23

WEB DEVCompleted

UI Enhancements

Stats Showcase (Animation & Annotation)

Design2025-10-03

WEB DEVCompleted

UI Enhancements

Replacing RMSE with 5-Star system

Design2025-09-28

WEB DEVCompleted

Dynamic Dashboard Pages

Links to Dashboards from Project Cards

Build/Data2024-11-05

WEATHERCompleted

Correcting Sunday Week Start

Accounting for Time Zone Shifts

Build/Data2024-10-17

BACKEND DEVCompleted

Blob Storage for Dashboard Data

Serve Curated Data Files Across Projects

Build/Data2024-10-03

BACKEND DEVCompleted

Scheduled Data Processing

Automation for Weekly Processing

Design2024-09-30

ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

v1 Baseline & Enhanced Modeling

Google Trends Data Helps Predict Usage

Testing/Analytics2024-09-29

WEATHERCompleted

Baseline Weather Forecasts

Weekly Forecasts Using Prior Signal Data

Build/Data2024-09-22

STOCKSCompleted

Following Closing Price Values

Outline Scope and Success Markers

Concept2024-09-16

WEB DEVCompleted

Featured Weekly Plot (plotly.js)

Wider View of Featured Data

Build/Data2024-09-08

WEATHERCompleted

V1 Weather Signals (Local)

Source Data and Processing

Design2024-09-01

BACKEND DEVIn-Progress

Novel and Sparse Time-Series Features

Feature Engineering Time and Domain Data

Concept2024-08-31

BACKEND DEVCompleted

GPU and Parallel Compute (CUDA image)

Reconfiguring Backend System for CUDA

Build/Data2024-08-26

WEB DEVCompleted

Featured Data SVG Component

Time Series Lines and 'Last Week' Points

Build/Data2024-07-21

WEB SEARCHCompleted

Keywords for Predicting Video Watching

Air Conditioner, Indoor, Outdoor, Showtimes

Design2024-07-14

WEB SEARCHCompleted

Web Search Trends for Prediction

Methodology from Preis, Moat, and Stanley (2013)

Concept2024-06-30

ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

v2 Video App for Cognitively Impaired

Quality of Life Changes

Build/Data2024-06-15

ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

v1 Video App for Cognitively Impaired

Early Testing and Observation

Testing/Analytics2024-06-12

BACKEND DEVCompleted

v1 Video App for Cognitively Impaired

Data Fetching and Processing

Build/Data2024-06-01

BACKEND DEVCompleted

v1 Data Warehouse

Fetch and Processing System

Design2024-05-29

BACKEND DEVCompleted

Data Warehouse Development

Outline Scope and Success Markers

Concept2024-05-22

ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

v1 Video App for Cognitively Impaired

Data Processing -- Usage Hours

Design2024-05-02

ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

v1 Video App for Cognitively Impaired

Backend Service for Data Processing

Concept2024-04-25

WEB DEVCompleted

v1 Projects Web App

Project and Progress Components

Design2024-04-20

WEB DEVCompleted

v1 Projects Web App

Development Page Layout

Design2024-04-18

HOUSINGCompleted

Tracking US Metro Location Housing Values

Foundational Data

Concept2024-04-18

WEB DEVCompleted

v1 Projects Web App

Outline Scope and Success Markers

Concept2024-04-17

ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

v1 Video App for Cognitively Impaired

Touch Tablet Selection, Passive Browsing

Design2023-11-10

ENABLED AUTONOMYCompleted

v1 Video App for Cognitively Impaired

Outline Scope and Success Markers

Concept2023-11-02

Hi, welcome.This website provides weekly reporting for the Enabled Autonomy Video Player tablet and other data signals. The main goal is to support evidence-based improvements for the app and other projects by monitoring and forecasting key measurements.I created the Enabled Autonomy Video Player app for my cousin, Bill (cognitively impaired), to provide him a video browsing and viewing experience he can engage with independently.

Little Caesars

Data Scientist

2021 - 2024

Standardized data pipelines for order, customer, and store-level measurement, supporting business-wide analytics (marketing promotions, test items, operational changes).

Created customer segmentation methodology based on retention/churn modeling, improving ad spend efficiency.

Led development for item-specific demand predictions served throughout the day to store operators at each domestic and international location.

Casper Sleep

Data Scientist

2019

Designed a data pipeline and Bayesian regression model optimizing channel-by-funnel ad spending.

Developed a dashboard visualizing ad-spend response curves for channel-by-funnel targets.

Reviewed existing advertising testing methods, including geospatial A/B testing.

University of Lausanne

Postdoctoral Researcher and Course Instructor

2014 - 2018

Employed data science methods for memory-based decision-making research.

Designed novel computer-based experiments and evaluated models with behavioral data.

Secured a 2-year postdoctoral fellowship from the Swiss National Science Foundation.

Education

Ph.D. in Cognitive and Brain Sciences

State University of New York at Binghamton

B.S. (Summa cum laude) in Psychology

Eastern Michigan University